by David A. Graham
As the president’s numbers climb sharply, results suggest that Democrats may be succeeding in firing up their base.
Despite doom-saying about Democrats’ chances in the midterms, the latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows that they remain in a close race with Republicans 12 days before Election Day, while the president’s approval ratings have climbed sharply. The poll finds that 48 percent of registered voters would be more likely to vote for Democrats, compared with 42 percent who lean Republican (those numbers are similar to those in the last NEWSWEEK Poll, which found Democrats favored 48 percent to 43 percent). President Obama’s approval ratings have jumped substantially, crossing the magic halfway threshold to 54 percent, up from 48 percent in late September, while the portion of respondents who disapprove of the president dropped to 40 percent, the lowest disapproval rating in a NEWSWEEK Poll since February 2010. However, his approval rating, which is notably higher than many recent polls of the president’s popularity, may be evidence of a closing “enthusiasm gap” more than a sea change in voter attitudes, and may not substantially affect Democrats’ fortunes come Election Day. In 1994, NEWSWEEK Polls showed a similar steep climb in President Clinton’s approval between late September and late October, but Democrats still suffered a rout in the midterms.
While two thirds (69 percent) of self-identified Republican voters say they’ve given a lot or some thought to the election, 62 percent of Democrats say they have. This result indicates that the difference in enthusiasm between Democratic and Republican voters may be less stark than some other polls have suggested. A small plurality of registered voters—48 to 43 percent—would prefer that Democrats keep control of Congress. (The poll’s margin of error is 4.3 percent.) The new survey also offers a morsel of evidence that Democrats’ strategy of gaining an edge among early voters might be succeeding. They hold a 10-point lead among those who have already voted, 52 points to 42, but because the sample only represents 92 voters out of the 1,005 polled, Hugick says more polling is necessary for a conclusive picture. Early voting—which has steadily gained popularity in recent years—is expected to have an impact on the election, with three in 10 voters expected to cast ballots before Nov. 2.
Pollster Larry Hugick says that while Republicans are still likely to come out on top on Nov. 2, the results of the new poll show it might not be the runaway domination some commenters have suggested. “The idea that the Democrats are just going to sit this one out doesn’t seem very likely,” he says. “While there’s no question that Republicans are going to pick up seats, the question is how many.”
One factor feeding excitement for the GOP: the Tea Party. A quarter of likely voters, 24 percent, say they support the movement, with 27 percent of likely voters opposing it. Among Tea Party supporters, two thirds identify as Republicans, but nine in 10 intend to vote for Republican candidates for Congress. Eighty-one percent of Tea Party backers oppose the bank bailouts, 90 percent oppose health-care reform, and 85 percent think the economic stimulus was bad for the country. Among the entire sample of voters, two thirds look unfavorably on the bailouts, but support and opposition for the stimulus and health-care reform are roughly equal and within the margin of error.
Story Courtesy Of Newsweek.com